A brand new poll came out that Ipsos shows Kamala Harris ahead by six points over Donald Trump among likely voters so what’s the problem for the Harris campaign so you ask now that’s been seen. Your data reporter has been seen somewhere in an undisclosed location I don’t know oh you’re still right, areas in an undisclosed location, to explain to us that this poll itself is not surprising. Great news for hair, explain okay so you know this is not surprising, Mr. Berman from my undisclosed location, you’ll never guess where I am, so look here and the national polls over the last month include leads within the margin or Kamala Harris leads. Almost every single national poll she leads by and in the nine polls released over the last month Trump has only had a lead in one national poll last month. We have a tie so the fact that a national poll shows Kamala Harris ahead. Actually not very surprising because John is ahead of almost everyone. The thing is Harry thanks to the founding fathers this is a national poll. That’s exactly it. You’re suddenly behind you keep going Harry is still in an unknown place but at least virtually behind me.
Look it’s about the electoral college. Let’s take a look at the average margin nationally. Harris didn’t have the average poll by two points but look at seven key battleground states Arizona Georgia Michigan about North Carolina Pennsylvania Wisconsin Harris only leads by zero points three points John so the bottom line is in those seven key battleground states. This is a critical title race then this is John nationally so Al Gore and Hillary Clinton are missing out right now. Harry is asking what is the probability that Harris can win the popular vote but lose in the electoral college. So basically you know a two-point five-point lead nationally here okay. Harris has a probability of winning the popular vote by two to three points, then the probability of winning the electoral college is only fifty three percent. The bottom line is once you get to three to four points. Because it’s never been clear. Clear probability Clear probability Clear probability of winning the electoral college. If she only wins at least, to see that right now she only has a twenty-three percent chance of winning. Harris is in that danger zone right now, basically looking at the popular vote margin about half the time she will win nationally.
So here’s the situation: Trance Harris wins the pot. The Miller vote at this point is about seventy percent, but the chance of going to the Electoral College is only fifty percent. So, the bottom line is at this point John Kamala Harris has about a twenty percent chance of winning the popular vote. Yet, loses it in the Electoral College. So we could be heading towards one of these splits. Which is what we saw in thousand sixteen. One out of two thousand, candidate Kamala Harris wins the popular vote but loses in the Electoral College. Basically, at this point, we’re in that weird middle zone where we honestly don’t know what’s going to happen based on the popular vote. That’s why those national polls that show Kamala Harris ahead at this point don’t really mean much. Stay safe wherever you are my friend and Sarah continued the conversation saying she’s right here with me I don’t have to look around and one man as a political commentator and Battleground host saw in post-debate polling that you saw a hint of something happening from Harry in the future.